Showing posts with label Mark Jacobson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mark Jacobson. Show all posts

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Transforming Society


How can the problems of war, climate collapse and famine best be addressed? 

Earlier this year, the U.N. issued a warning about famine, pointing out that war is compounding the problems of climate disruption and famine, adding that the "main costs to farmers are fertilizers and energy". The U.N. statement follows many news media reports about the rising cost of living.  

How can these problems best be addressed? For more than two decades, two sets of feebates have been recommended to help achieve agriculture reform and a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy, as depicted in the images in this post and as discussed in many earlier posts and the text below.


Agricultural Reform

Agriculture uses half of habitable land. Agriculture uses 70% to 90% of the freshwater supply. Most farmland is used to produce meat and diary. A 2019 Greenpeace analysis found over 71% of EU farmland to be dedicated to meat and dairy. Much agricultural land is used unsustainably in many ways; there is growing dependence on chemical fertilizers and weedkillers & herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, rodenticides and other pesticides; there is also a growing dependency on fossil fuel in many agricultural and food-related activities; and there is a growing demand for water. This causes huge emissions of greenhouse gases, pollution with toxic compounds, depletion of groundwater, salinification and erosion of soil and loss of soil nutrients and soil carbon content, and loss of diversity of many of the plants, the wildlife and the microorganisms that helped the world population grow to 8 billion people


Changing from food that is rich in meat and dairy to vegan-organic food can free up large areas of land that can instead be used for other purposes such as community gardens and food forests. It can bring down the cost of food and it can, in combination with biochar, restore the soil's carbon, moisture and nutrients content.

Instead of adding chemical nitrogen fertilizers - typically produced with natural gas - in annually-planted monocultures, it's better to have a diversity of vegetation including a variety of perennial plants such as legumes and trees. Furthermore, pyrolyzing biowaste should be encouraged, as this reduces fire hazards and produces biochar that can be added to soil to sequester carbon and to increase nutrients and moisture in the soil. According to Schmidt et al., 400,000 pyrolysis plants need to be built to process 3.8 billion tons of biowaste annually.

Local councils could encourage this by adding extra fees to rates for land where soil carbon falls, while using the revenue for rebates on rates for land where soil carbon rises.

That way, adding biochar effectively becomes a tool to lower rates, while it will also help improve the soil's fertility, its ability to retain water and to support more vegetation. That way, real assets are built, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the 2014 post Biochar Builds Real Assets.

Two sets of feebates can strongly reduce the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, specifically carbon dioxide (C₂O), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O).

[ from earlier post ]
The contribution of agriculture to emissions of carbon dioxide and especially methane is huge. The image on the right illustrates the difference between using a Gobal Warming Potential (GWP) for methane of 171 over a few years versus 28 over 100 years.

Nitrous oxide is also important, as a potent greenhouse gas and also as an ozone depleting substance (ODS). The impact of nitrous oxide as an ODS has grown relative to the impact of CFCs, as the abundance of nitrous oxide has kept rising in the atmosphere.

The IPCC in AR6 gives nitrous oxide a lifetime of 109 years and a GWP of 273. A 2017 study warns about increased nitrous oxide emissions from Arctic peatlands after permafrost thaw.

Furthermore, a recent study finds that nitrous oxide emissions contribute strongly to cirrus clouds, especially when ammonia, nitric acid and sulfuric acid are present together. Cirrus clouds exerts a net positive radiative forcing of about 5 W m⁻², according to IPCC AR6.

Much of current nitrous oxide emissions is caused by nitrogen fertilizers. Legumes include beans, peas, peanuts, lentils, lupins, mesquite, carob, tamarind, alfalfa, and clover. Legumes can naturally fix nitrogen to the soil, thus reducing the need for nitrogen fertilizer and in turn reducing the associated emissions, including emissions of methane and nitrous oxide.

Adding nitrogen fertilizer can also cause the formation of dead zones in lakes and oceans. Dead zones occur when the water gets too many nutrients, such as phosphorus and nitrogen from fertilizers, resulting in oxygen depletion at the top layer of oceans, which can also increase nitrous oxide releases.

In the video on the right, Jim McHenry discusses ways to improve the situation. 

All too often, chemical nitrogen fertilizers are added unnecessarily. The intent may be to help the plants grow, e.g. when leaves of plants turn yellow or when there is little growth. But it may actually be that the plants get too little water because the roots of the plants were damaged or too short, or that there was too little shade and too much sun. Excessive nitrogen fertilization and irrigation can then result in a lot of green leaves, but this growth can come at the expense of good food.

Instead, with a good mix of vegetation, there's little or no need to add chemical nitrogen fertilizer, since nitrogen-fixing plants such as legumes can help fast-growing plants get the necessary nitrogen, while the fast-growing plants provide shade for the legumes and the soil. Next to providing shade, the tall, sturdy stalks of plants such as corn can give the vines of beans something to attach themselves to. Fast-growing pants can provide a lot of shade to other plants and to the soil, thus keeping the soil moist, while also preventing the infiltration and growth of weeds and while also deterring pests with their spiny leaves.

Trees can lower surface temperatures by providing shade and by holding colder air under their canopy, thus avoiding extreme temperatures that could also cause the soil to get too dry. The roots of trees prevent erosion and guide rainwater to reach greater depth, thus avoiding that the soil gets too wet in case of heavy rain. Trees then pump water up from deep in the ground with their roots and much of the water comes out again through leaves (evapotranspiration), which stimulates rainfall. Furthermore, trees release pheromones (that attract pollinators) and other aerosols such as terpenes. Trees are typically narrower at the top and wider below, and through their shape and by standing up high they can guide the wind upward, while water vapor released from leaves also helps lift these aerosols into the air.  Raindrops forming around these aerosols will further stimulate the formation of lower cloud decks that provide shade, that reflect sunlight back into space and that produce more rainfall locally.

Furthermore, olivine sand can be used to create borders for gardens, footpaths and bicycle paths. Where needed, olivine sand could also be added on top of biochar, as the light color of olivine sand reflects more sunlight, while olivine can also soak up excess water and sequester carbon, while adding nutrients to the soil. By redesigning urban areas, more space can be used for trees, which also reduces the urban heat island effect and thus lowers temperatures.

In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses global food shortages.


Also important is the transition to a vegan-organic diet. This can dramatically reduce the need for land and water, while additionally reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A good mix and variety of vegetation can help each of the plants through symbiotic interaction grow an abundance of vegan-organic food locally in a sustainable way.

Pyrolysis of biowaste is recommended as this can turn most carbon into biochar, resulting in high carbon sequestration rates, and increased capacity of the soil to retain carbon, nutrients and moisture, thus reducing erosion, fire hazards and greenhouse gas emissions, while increasing vegetation growth resulting in additional drawdown of carbon from the atmosphere. 

Most of the biowaste can be pyrolyzed and returned to the soil in the form of biochar. Some of the biowaste can also be used to construct buildings. Instead of cutting down the largest and most healthy trees to do so, which now all too often happens, it makes more sense to instead remove only dead trees and biowaste from the forest floor. Such use of biowaste could provide funding for the process of waste removal from the forest floor. For most biowaste (including kitchen and garden waste, and sewage), it makes sense to turn it into biochar that is added to the soil.

"The carbon content of biochar varies with feedstock and production conditions from as low as 7% (gasification of biosolids) to 79% (pyrolysis of wood at above 600 °C). Of this initial carbon, 63-82% will remain unmineralized in soil after 100 years at the global mean annual cropland-temperature of 14.9 °C", a 2021 study concludes. 

[ from earlier post ]
The above image shows how policies described in the Climate Plan can reduce the cost of energy and the cost of food, and facilitate the necessary transformation of society. The image shows examples of feebates that can help transform society in sectors such as agriculture, forestry, oceans, waste management and construction (center panel). The image also shows examples of local feebates to facilitate the transition to clean, renewable energy (top panel), as further discussed below.

Reducing the Cost of Energy and the Cost of Conflict

[ from earlier post, click on image to enlarge ]
As said, the cost of energy can best be reduced by a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy.

Much land is currently used for mining and drilling, refining and transport of fossil fuel (including roads, railways, ports and military protection to secure supply lines). 

Much land is also used to grow crops and trees that are burned for energy, such as wood used for heating, wood fed into power plants and crops grown for biofuel to power vehicles.

Mining, drilling and power plants are also large users of water. They need a lot of water, mainly for cooling, and they can pollute the water they use. 

Instead, by using electricity that is generated by wind turbines and solar panels, the total amount of water and the total area of land that is needed to produce energy can be reduced dramatically. 

Currently, much fossil fuel is transported by ship. International shipping emissions are not included in national totals of greenhouse gas emissions, despite the huge part of international shipping in global trade, carrying 70% of that trade by value and more than 80% by volume. Near the coast, batteries are increasingly powering shipping, but in international waters, shipping is almost entirely powered by fossil fuel, mainly bunker oil. Some 43% of maritime transport is busy merely moving fuel across the globe, so terminating fuel usage on land could in itself almost halve international shipping emissions.

In addition to commercial emissions caused by shipping of fuel, there are also military emissions that are excluded in national totals, such as international use by the military of bunker fuels and jet fuel, greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption of bases abroad and the manufacture of equipment used by the military abroad. A large part of the military is busy securing and protecting global supply lines for fossil fuel, while burning huge amounts of fuel in the process. A 2019 analysis found that the US military's global supply chain and heavy reliance on carbon-based fuels make it the largest institutional consumer of oil and one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters, more than many countries worldwide.


Disputes over possession of fossil fuel are behind many international conflicts. Instead, nations can each cater for their power needs more independently and securely by transitioning to clean, renewable energy. A large part of a nation's infrastructure is used to transport fuel domestically, including trucks driving on roads and highways, while also using tunnels and bridges, parking places and stations for refuelling, while additionally fuel is transported by trains, planes and vessels that need ports, railways stations and tracks, and a lot of fossil fuel is burned in the process of transporting the fuel and constructing and maintaining these facilities.

Furthermore, part of the wood from forests and crops from farmland is used to supply biofuel, for use either to power vehicles, for heating or as fuel for power plants. Reducing the use of fuel will therefore also reduce nations getting into conflict with other nations, not only conflict over the possession of fossil fuel and over water to cool power plants, but also conflict over land and water that is used for agriculture and forestry to grow biofuel.

The easiest way to reduce the cost of conflict is to take away the reason for conflict, which in this case is the use of land to produce fuel.

In the video below, Robert Llewellyn interviews Mark Jacobson about The Climate Crisis.


Clean, renewable energy in the form of electricity generated by solar panels and wind turbines is already more economic than burning fuel for energy. Shifting to clean energy will thus lower the cost of energy, while people will also be less burdened by the cost of associated conflicts, which is more than the cost of the military and police taking care to avoid conflict, as the cost is even larger than that if conflicts do escalate and cause destruction of infrastructure, damage to soil and ecosystems and loss of lives, health and livelihood for all involved.

The comprehensive and effective action proposed by the Climate Plan can terminate the use of fuel and thus also reduce conflict, while additionally reducing the threat of runaway warming, and while additionally providing many environmental benefits and further benefits such as the termination of perceived needs for military forces to police global fuel supply lines and associated infrastructure.

In conclusion, reducing the use of fuel will in itself further reduce demand for fuel and the cost of energy. Replacing fuel by clean, renewable energy can additionally cut the need for energy through greater efficiencies of electric motors, appliances and devices. As said, this will also reduce the need for land and water, and - this cannot be said enough - avoid or delay climate collapse and catastrophe.

Air Taxis and Urban Redesign can further facilitate the necessary transformation

Electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) air taxis can be an important component of the transformation of the way we travel, live, work and eat.

Using eVTOL air taxis can reduce the need for roads and associated infrastructure, further freeing up land, while the transition to electricity generated with solar panels and wind turbines can additionally free up land that is now used by utilities and their associated infrastructure such as power plants, power poles and towers, communication poles, etc. This land can instead be used for community gardens, (food) forests, parks, etc.

This doesn't have to be an instant shift. In existing cities, there already is a strong and growing movement to restrict the use of cars in city centers, and to instead add more walkways and bikeways. In this case, the roads will still be there, it's just their usage that changes. Another example is pipes. Many cities want to disconnect pipes that now supply natural gas to buildings, as it makes more sense to use electricity instead. The pipes will still be there, they just won't be used anymore, if at all. Digging up the pipes may make sense, but this may take some effort and time and it's therefore important that this issue is not used as an excuse to delay the rapid transition to the use of clean energy that is so urgently needed.

It's important to look at longer-term and more radical redesign. The transition toward greater use of air taxis enables space previously used for roads to instead be used for more walkways and bikeways, as well as for trees, community gardens, etc. This should be incorporated as part of wider and longer-term planning and redesign of urban areas.

In some places, this can lead to a more compact urban design, especially in city centers. After all, a lot of space becomes available as the use of roads for vehicle movements and for parking is reduced in an urban area, and this allows for more compact construction of new buildings and renovation of existing buildings that also reduces the distance between buildings, thus shortening the time it takes for trips by foot or bike in the city center, while there also will be plenty of opportunities for spaces to be created for air taxis to land and take off, e.g. in parks and on top of buildings.

At the same time, air taxis enable trips of up to a few hundred miles to be completed fast, while using little energy and causing little emissions. Furthermore, more remote places can be economically reached by air taxis without a need for roads to lead them to these places or for railway stations to be located nearby. Drone delivery of goods and air taxis can enable more people to live outside urban areas. More people will be able to have goods delivered to their home and to reach urban amenities if and when they want to, and more economically compared to using cars and roads.

The need for land and water to produce food and energy, and the need for land to transport goods and food can be reduced with the transitions to clean energy and to vegan-organic food. These transitions can also reduce the need for infrastructure such as pipes and poles for water supply, sewage, communications and power. Instead, we can have solar panels, microgrids, WiFi, rainwater tanks, biochar units, food forests and community gardens.

The image below illustrates how policies recommended in the Climate Plan can further reduce the need for infrastructure by supporting eVTOL air taxis, while transforming the space thus gained into community gardens, walkways, bikeways, etc.

[ from an earlier post ]

In conclusion, the situation can best be addressed through action as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan (page)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Plan (post)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/climate-plan.html

• Climate Plan (group)
https://www.facebook.com/groups/ClimatePlan

• Air Taxis (group)
https://www.facebook.com/groups/AirTaxis

• Biochar (group)
https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar

• Vegan Organic Food (group)
https://www.facebook.com/groups/VeganOrganicFood

• Secretary-General Warns of Unprecedented Global Hunger Crisis, with 276 Million Facing Food Insecurity, Calling for Export Recovery, Debt Relief (June 24, 2022)
https://press.un.org/en/2022/sgsm21350.doc.htm

• Confirm Methane's Importance
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/confirm-methanes-importance.html

• Land Use - by Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser
https://ourworldindata.org/land-use

• FAO - Water for Sustainable Food and Agriculture

• Global agricultural green and blue water consumption under future climate and land use changes - by Zhongwei Huang et al. 
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S002216941930383X

• UN - population

• 400,000 Pyrolysis Plants to Save the Climate - by Hans-Peter Schmidt and Nikolas Hagemann (2021) 

• Greenhouse Gas Inventory Model for Biochar Additions to Soil - by Dominic Woolf et al. 
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.1c02425

• Nitrogen fertiliser use could ‘threaten global climate goals’
https://www.carbonbrief.org/nitrogen-fertiliser-use-could-threaten-global-climate-goals

• IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 7
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_07.pdf

• Synergistic HNO3 H2SO4 NH3 upper tropospheric particle formation - by Mingyi Wang et al. (2022) 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04605-4

• IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 4
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_04.pdf

• Low oxygen eddies in the eastern tropical North Atlantic: Implications for N2O cycling - by D. Grundle et al. (2017) 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-04745-y

• Increased nitrous oxide emissions from Arctic peatlands after permafrost thaw - by Carolina Voigt et al. (2017) 
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1702902114

• Low-cost solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity for 145 countries - by Mark Jacobson et al.
• Numerous Benefits of 100% Clean, Renewable Energy

• How Much Water Do Power Plants Use? 
https://blog.ucsusa.org/john-rogers/how-much-water-do-power-plants-use-316

• Why does the Carmichael coal mine need to use so much water?

• View your government’s military emissions data
https://militaryemissions.org

• Military emissions
https://militaryemissions.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/military-emissions_final.pdf

• Emissions from fuels used for international aviation and maritime transport

• Decarbonizing the maritime sector: Mobilizing coordinated action in the industry using an ecosystems approach

• Assessing possible impacts on States of future shipping decarbonization

• News release: No environmental justice, no positive peace — and vice versa
https://www.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/en/news/73129

• Study: A global analysis of interactions between peace and environmental sustainability - by Dahylia Simangan et al.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589811622000210

• Also discussed at:

• Costs of War - Neta Crawford



Saturday, July 7, 2018

Numerous Benefits of 100% Clean, Renewable Energy

An excellent new paper by Mark Jacobson et al. describes 100% clean and renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for 53 towns and cities in North America.

In the video below, Mark Jacobson discusses the 'Path to a 100% Renewable World'.


Clean and renewable energy is not only cheaper, it also avoids health and climate damage many times greater than those savings.

Additionally, clean and renewable energy provides more long-term full-time jobs, provides more robust and stable energy and provides greater energy safety and security, all with less need for land and water.

Furthermore, clean and renewable energy avoids costs of insurance against nuclear accidents, avoids conflicts over fossil fuel resources, avoids pollution of oceans, soil and groundwater and avoids infrastructure for transport of drilling & mining equipment and fuel.

Reductions in mining, drilling and fracking can also avoid falls in land values, with benefits for land owners and for councils in terms of greater rates revenues.


As described in the earlier post 100% clean, renewable energy is cheaper, the price of fuel looks set to go up over time due to decreasing economies of scale for fuel, while the price of clean, renewable energy looks set to keep coming down, in line with ongoing innovation, efficiency improvements and economies of scale. Examples are induction cookingbatteries, heat pumpsLED lights, refrigeration and smelters.

The transition to clean & renewable energy will avoid a lot of energy, time and money spent on planning, constructing and maintaining the ports, railways, pipelines and supply of water for cooling that is needed to keep conventional power plants going. The savings in efficiency are huge, as illustrated by the image below, the total demand reduction is 57.9% of what the demand would be if business were to continue as usual (BAU).


Debt

Many of the costs associated with fossil fuel are currently not incorporated in its price. Continued emissions would drive the world further in debt, due to rising costs of health care, removal of carbon dioxide, etc.

There is also the price of conflict. As an example, fossil fuel adds to the cost of conflict over resources and securing of fuel transport. A 2017 report puts the cost of U.S. military intervention in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan over the period FY2001-FY2018 at $5.6 trillion, or $23,386 for the average taxpayer. The report adds that, unlike past US wars, these wars have been paid for largely through borrowing. The $5.6 trillion includes the interest the US has already paid on this debt, but it does not include projected future interest. Even if the US stopped spending money on these wars right now, cumulated interest costs on borrowing will ultimately add more than $7.9 trillion to the national debt over the next several decades.

Climate Plan

Sam Carana's Climate Plan suggests that local feebates can most effectively and rapidly achieve the necessary transition to clean & renewable energy. As an example, fees can be imposed on sales of fuel, with the revenues used to fund rebates on local supply of clean & renewable energy. Another example is to impose fees on registration of vehicles with internal combustion engines, with the revenues used to fund rebates on registration of battery-electric or hydrogen-powered vehicles. Local feebates can best help areas each get their preferred mix (of local supply/storage, of grid interconnection and imports/exports of electricity, and of demand response).

The Climate Plan calls for dramatic cuts in emissions through such policies, while also calling for further lines of action. For more on the benefits of feebates, see the feebates and policies pages.


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• 100% clean and renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for 53 towns and cities in North America, by Mark Jacobson et al.
https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/TownsCities.pdf

• 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World, by Mark Jacobson et al.
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CountriesWWS.pdf

• Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes, by Mark Jacobson et al.
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CombiningRenew/WorldGridIntegration.pdf



Friday, February 16, 2018

100% clean, renewable energy is cheaper

A new analysis by Stanford University professor Mark Z. Jacobson and colleagues shows that the world can be powered by 100% clean, renewable energy, with today's technology.


The analysis looks at different pathways, using different ways of energy generation (by wind, water and sunlight), in combination with storage, transmission, and demand response, concluding that the world can also be powered by 100% clean, renewable energy at a lower cost than a BAU (Business-As-Usual) scenario dominated by fossil fuel.

“Based on these results, I can more confidently state that there is no technical or economic barrier to transitioning the entire world to 100% clean, renewable energy with a stable electric grid at low cost,” says Mark Jacobson.

[ image added May 2018, see video ]
Moreover, the price of fuel currently excludes the cost of health and climate damage caused by fuel. When including these costs, the cost of clean, renewable energy is ¼ the cost of BAU. Since clean, renewable energy uses 43%-58% fewer kWh, it is ⅛ the cost of fuel.

[ brightened image, added May 2018, see video ]
The price of fuel looks set to go up over time due to decreasing economies of scale for fuel and due to the cost of conflict associated with fuel. As an example, a 2017 report puts the cost of U.S. military intervention in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan over the period FY2001-FY2018 at $5.6 trillion, or $23,386 for the average taxpayer. The report adds that, unlike past US wars, these wars have been paid for largely through borrowing. The $5.6 trillion includes the interest the US has already paid on this debt, but it does not include projected future interest. Even if the US stopped spending money on these wars right now, cumulated interest costs on borrowing will ultimately add more than $7.9 trillion to the national debt over the next several decades.

Meanwhile, the price of clean, renewable energy looks set to keep coming down, in line with ongoing innovation, efficiency improvements and economies of scale. Examples are induction cooking, batteries, heat pumps, LED lights, refrigeration and smelters.

Local feebates can most effectively and rapidly achieve the necessary transition to clean, renewable energy. One example is to impose fees on sales of fuel, with the revenues used to fund rebates on local supply of clean, renewable energy. Another example is to impose fees on registration of vehicles with internal combustion engines, with the revenues used to fund rebates on registration of battery-electric vehicles. Local feebates can best help areas each get their preferred mix (of local supply/storage, of grid interconnection and imports/exports of electricity, and of demand response).

The Climate Plan calls for dramatic cuts in emissions through such policies, while also calling for further lines of action. For more on the benefits of feebates, see the feebates and policies pages.

[ image from Renewables ]
100% clean & renewable energy is technically feasible and more attractive economically, more healthy, and will provide more jobs and more robust, stable and lower-cost energy with greater energy independence and security and with less need for land, water and imports. Moreover, it will dramatically reduce harmful pollution and emissions, which is absolutely imperative in the light of the urgent need to act on global warming.

Feel encouraged to discuss things further at the following groups at facebook:
facebook.com/groups/Renewables
facebook.com/groups/ElectricTransport
facebook.com/groups/biochar
facebook.com/groups/ClimateAlert
facebook.com/groups/ArcticNews
facebook.com/groups/geoengineering


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes, by Mark Z. Jacobson et al.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148118301526

• Stanford engineers develop a new method of keeping the lights on if the world turns to 100% clean, renewable energy
https://news.stanford.edu/2018/02/08/avoiding-blackouts-100-renewable-energy

• Costs of War project, Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs
http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/

• Rapid Transition to a Clean World
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/11/rapid-transition-to-a-clean-world.html

• Roadmap for Repowering California for all Purposes with Wind, Water, and Sunlight
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/06/roadmap-for-repowering-california-for-all-purposes-with-wind-water-and-sunlight.html

• Feebates
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feebates.html

• Policies
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/policies.html

•  Professor Mark Z. Jacobson speaks at Cupertino Rotary, California, May 9, 2018
https://vimeo.com/269302931




Saturday, September 3, 2016

Action must be taken now


Some of the world's most preeminent climate scientists, all experts with many decades of experience in their respective field, are warning that effective action must be taken now to avoid catastrophe.

These scientists, and many others, have made valuable and much-appreciated contributions to the Arctic-news blog over the years [note: contributors each express their own views in posts and may or may not endorse other content of this blog].

Sam Carana, editor of this blog, has for years supported the calls of these scientists, also discussing and sharing their calls at facebook groups such as Arctic-News, Electric TransportRenewables and Climate Alert.

[ image discussed at facebook ]

Furthermore, Sam Carana has called for specific action for years, including support for biochar, preferably through feebates. More specifically, Sam Carana recommends that revenues raised from fees imposed on sales of livestock products, nitrogen fertilizers and Portland cement are used to fund support for soil supplements, as illustrated by above image. For more on biochar, see this blog and this facebook group.

For years, Sam Carana has also called for more R&D in specific areas of geo-engineering. For more on this, see this blog and this facebook group.

More generally, Sam Carana advocates the Climate Plan, which calls for a global commitment to parallel lines of action while seeking to delegate implementation to local communities, preferably through effective policies such as local feebates.

This blog has had some success in spreading this message. To date, Sam Carana has received 82,327,368 views at Google plus (see screenshot on the right), while this blog has received 3,255,445 views (see update of views in the panel further on the right).

Your continued support is needed to share this message, so please join one or more of the above-mentioned groups, and share and like the images of this post in emails, on facebook and other social media.

Regarding the urgency to act, the images below give an update on the terrifying situation in the Arctic, where the sea ice is disappearing fast.

The decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic goes hand in hand with rising sea surface temperatures that contribute to sea ice getting ever thinner.

The image on the right show Arctic sea ice on September 1, 2016, with thickness in meters.

The warming of the oceans is illustrated by the images below.

The image directly below shows sea surface temperature (left) and anomalies compared to 1981-2011 (right).


The image below also shows sea surface temperature anomalies, this time compared to 1971-2000.


Global warming has hit the Arctic particularly hard over the past 365 days, with anomalies exceeding the top end of the scale over most of the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.


The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Rapid Transition to a Clean World

100% clean and renewable wind, water, and solar (WWS)
all-sector energy roadmaps for 139 countries of the world


[ click here for explanatory video of above image ]
Above image is from an excellent study by Jacobson et al., showing that it is technically feasible and economically attractive to shift to clean energy facilities between now and 2050. This will create net jobs worldwide. It will avoid millions of air-pollution mortalities and avoid trillions of dollars in pollution and global warming damage. It will stabilize energy prices and reduce energy poverty. It will make countries energy independent and reduce international conflict over energy. It will reduce risks of large-scale system disruptions by significantly decentralizing power production.



Given that there are so many benefits and there are no technical and economic barriers to complete a 100% shift by the year 2050 (and 80% by 2030), why not make an even faster transition?

Sam Carana suggests that feebates, especially when implemented locally, can best facilitate the necessary shift. Moreover, when energy feebates are implemented jointly with feebates in further areas, greenhouse gas emissions could be cut by 80% by 2020, while soils, atmosphere and oceans could be restored to their pre-industrial status over the course of the century.

[ the above emission cuts and feebates images were used in a meanwhile dated 2011 post ]
To achieve the most effective and rapid shift, Sam Carana recommends implementing two types of feebates, i.e. energy feebates and further feebates such as fees on sales of livestock products while using the revenues to fund rebates on soil supplements containing biochar.


Sam Carana adds that further lines of action will be needed to prevent Earth from overheating, warning that comprehensive and effective action is needed as described in the Climate Plan.

The image below shows that a shift to 100% clean (WWS) energy by 2050 (80% by 2030) could reduce CO2 to ~350 ppmv by 2100.

[ from Jacobson et al. 2015 ]
Energy feebates are the most effective way to speed up the shift to clean energy. Further feebates could make additional cuts in greenhouse gases emissions, while also removing carbon from the atmosphere and oceans, allowing us to aim for bringing down carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere to 280 ppmv by the year 2100.

Links

- How Renewable Energy Could Make Climate Treaties Moot (2015)

- 100% Wind, Water, and Solar (WWS) All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for Countries and States

- The Solutions Project - 100% Renewable Energy
thesolutionsproject.org

- Feebates
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feebates.html

- Climate Plan



Friday, June 27, 2014

Roadmap for Repowering California for all Purposes with Wind, Water, and Sunlight

A study by Mark Z. Jacobson et al. concludes that California’s power needs (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry) can be met entirely by WWS technologies.



The necessary WWS (wind, water, and sunlight) technologies consist of wind turbines, concentrated solar power (CSP) plants, solar photovoltaic (PV) plants and rooftop systems, solar hot water heater systems, geothermal power plants, a few additional hydroelectric power plants, and a small amount of tidal and wave power.


Transportation will use battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs), and hybrid BEV-HFCVs. The hydrogen, where needed, will be produced with electrolysis (i.e. with electricity). While using electrolytic hydrogen in transportation will generally be less efficient and more costly than using BEVs, there are some segments of transportation where hydrogen-energy storage may be preferred over battery-energy storage (e.g., ships, aircraft, long-distance freight).

High temperatures for industrial processes will be produced with electricity and hydrogen, with hydrogen again produced with electricity.


Electricity-powered air-source and ground-source heat pumps, geothermal heat pumps, and backup electric resistance heaters will be used for building heating and air conditioning. Air-source heat pump water heaters powered by electricity and solar hot water preheaters will provide hot water for buildings.




This roadmap can serve as a template for plans in other states and countries. The implementation of similar plans worldwide should essentially eliminate energy-related global warming and energy insecurity, while substantially reducing energy insecurity.

For more, go to:
and



Saturday, December 1, 2012

Aviation Policies

The European Union's policy on Aviation Emissions

From the start of 2012, the European Union (EU) required its members to include emissions from flights arriving at and departing from their airports in the EU scheme of emissions allowances and trading, while encouraging other nations to take equivalent measures. The EU exempts biofuel and claims to take a 'comprehensive approach' to reducing environmental impacts of aviation. To create space for political negotiations to get an international agreement regulating emissions from aviation, the EU has meanwhile postponed implementation of its directive by one year.

What kind of international agreement could be reached on aviation emissions? What policies work best? How do aviation policies fit into a comprehensive approach?

A Comprehensive Plan of Action on Climate Change

A comprehensive plan is best endorsed globally, e.g. through an international agreement building on the Kyoto Protocol and the Montreal Accord. At the same time, the specific policies are best decided and implemented locally, e.g. by insisting that each nation reduces specific emissions by a set annual percentage, and additionally removes a set annual amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and the oceans, followed by sequestration, proportionally to its current emissions.

Policy goals are most effectively achieved when policies are implemented locally and independently, with separate policies each addressing the specific shifts that are each needed to reach agreed targets. Each nation can work out what policies best fit their circumstances, as long as they each independently achieve agreed targets. Counting emissions where they occur will encourage nations to adopt effective policies, such as imposing fees on the sales of products in proportion to the emissions they cause, and adopting product standards that ban products that would otherwise cause unacceptably high emissions while clean alternatives are readily available.


Clean Energy Policies

Policies aiming to achieve a shift to clean energy will apply to many sectors such as transportation (including aviation), power plants, and industry and buildings which are also large consumers of fossil fuel. The above image also shows policies specifically targeting aviation, in addition to clean energy policies that apply across sectors.

The image below proposes feebates as the most effective way to accomplish the necessary shift to clean energy. In such feebates, fees are imposed on polluting energy and associated facilities, with revenues used - preferably locally - to fund rebates on clean energy and associated facilities.


In line with such feebates, each nation could impose fees on jetfuel, while using the revenues for a variety of purposes, preferably local clean energy programs. Where an airplane lands arriving from a nation that has failed to add sufficient fees, the nation where the airplane lands could impose supplementary fees. Such supplementary fees should be allowed under international trade rules, specifically if revenues are used to fund direct air capture of carbon dioxide.

Aviation Policies

As said, apart from clean energy policies, it makes sense to additionally implement policies specifically targeting aviation. Airplanes not only cause carbon dioxide emissions, but also cause other emissions such as black carbon and NOx, contrails and cirrus cloud effects. The EU emissions scheme only targets a limited set of emissions, while also looking at their global warming potential, rather than the potential of emissions to cause warming locally, specifically in the Arctic. A joint 2011 UNEP/WMO report mentioned many measures to reduce black carbon and tropospheric ozone, adding that their implementation could reduce warming in the Arctic in the next 30 years by about two-thirds.

A 2012 study by Jacobson et al. concludes that cross-polar flights by international aviation is the most abundant direct source of black carbon and other climate-relevant pollutants over the Arctic. Rerouting cross-polar flights to instead circumnavigate the Arctic Circle therefore makes sense. While such rerouting consumes more fuel, it could reduce fuel use and emissions within the Arctic Circle by 83% and delay pollutant transport to the Arctic.

Given the need to act on warming in the Arctic, it makes sense to ban cross-polar flights. To further reduce the flow of pollutants to the Arctic caused by aviation, it makes sense to add fees on all jet flights. Such fees on jet flights would be additional to the above fees on fuel. This could further facilitate a shift from aviation toward cleaner forms of transportation, such as high speed rail. Where the revenues of such fees are used to fund direct air capture, they could also help kickstart an industry that could produce synthetic jetfuel and that could be instrumental in bringing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide back to 280ppm.